Resolves YES if, by December 2025, it is publicly confirmed that in December 2024, there existed an AI system that, without access to current market probabilities, performed on the level of human market opinion on Manifold/Metaculus, or better. Only serious questions with non-negligible number of traders count.

There are two fuzzy requirements: (1) confirmation and (2) performance.

(1): Any official announcement from an AI lab, or a non-deleted Tweet from a prominent researcher in that lab, is enough for YES. Rumors on their own are not enough. Public action comparable to the 2023 safety letters in response to the rumored capability is enough for YES.

(2) In case the above requirement is met, it is still likely the AI won't be tested on serious Manifold questions properly. I reserve the right to resolve to a probability, based on my subjective credence in the following:
>Consider the AI forecasting metric of "How well does the LLMs with search abilities, but without access to the human market opinion, approximate human market opinion on Manifold/Metaculus?". On that model, in December 2024, was this metric orders of magnitude less useful than it is on models at the start of 2024?