Will an AI system out-perform the Metaculus community prediction before 2026? Any amount of scaffolding is allowed.

If this does not happen, and no negative result comes out in the last quarter of 2025, then this question resolves to my subjective credence that this could be done with an existing AI system and scaffolding. Specifically, my credence on the proposition 'Using 4 months of individual-engineering time, a pre-2026 AI could be fine-tuned and scaffolded to out-perform, on mean brier score, over all binary questions on Metaculus

I will not participate in this market.