Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
48
1kṀ11k
2028
93%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Definition of "New Lab":

- A "new lab" refers to any company, lab, or other entity that is not OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, Google, Meta, Mixtral, xAI, Microsoft, Nvidia or any subsidiary or parent company of them.

2. Top-Performing Generally Capable AI Frontier Model:

- The AI frontier model must achieve no less than a robust second place by performance. This includes:

- Unambiguous first place.

- Unambiguous second place.

- Ambiguous first place.

- Sharing first place.

- Sharing second place does not qualify.

3. Performance Metrics:

- Performance will be judged based on the most well-accepted metrics and user opinions and approvals available by then.

- For example, metrics may include benchmarks such as MMLU, HumanEval, and other relevant AI performance benchmarks.

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