Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
153
29k
2026
20%
chance

In a recent Dwarkesh podcast interview with the head of Anthropic, Dario Amodei makes the claim that an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" could be as soon as 2-3 years away.

Relevant video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuFBd4I2iZs

At the end of 2025 (roughly 2.5 years), how well will this claim hold up?

I will make a poll at market close and ask the following:

"Does AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" currently exist?"

The poll will stay up for 1 week.

This market resolves YES if the poll resolves "YES".
Otherwise this market will resolve NO.

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It's not real AGI until it turns me into paperclips.

Would love to see the same question for multiple years

I predict that AI made at the end of 2025 would be called AGI by us today, but that at the end of 2025 we'll say that it's not true AGI.

Seconding Lorxus here. This all comes down to how you define AGI -- were I in charge I'd already have resolved "yes".

I feel like the big "if" of this market is the AGI part. That's a very big bar to clear!

The gap in the "generally educated human" can vary a lot country to country, how populous that country is, etc. What do you have in mind for this market? Does a person who graduated high-school quality as a generally educated human?

@firstuserhere Median US citizen IMO, but because this resolves to a poll that will be up to interpretation.

Currently there are many simple text-based tasks that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't.

For as long as that's true, I believe the result should be NO.


These two markets are about that, and the current probability (24%) seems to somewhat align with these markets: 4% by the end of 2025, 33% by the end of 2026.

Hmmm I am confident this will not be true but I'm not sure I trust a poll.

@Joshua I suspect the poll will model reality, but could always have a related market about that fact!

Made a poll to measure people's current opinions: