In a recent Dwarkesh podcast interview with the head of Anthropic, Dario Amodei makes the claim that an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" could be as soon as 2-3 years away.

Relevant video: https://youtu.be/Nlkk3glap_U?si=2JyHLqMSxIxdakR6

At the end of 2025 (roughly 2.5 years), how well will this claim hold up?

I will make a poll at market close and ask the following:

"Does AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" currently exist?"

The poll will stay up for 1 week.

This market resolves YES if the poll resolves "YES".
Otherwise this market will resolve NO.