Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
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In a recent Dwarkesh podcast interview with the head of Anthropic, Dario Amodei makes the claim that an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" could be as soon as 2-3 years away.
Relevant video: https://youtu.be/Nlkk3glap_U?si=2JyHLqMSxIxdakR6
At the end of 2025 (roughly 2.5 years), how well will this claim hold up?
I will make a poll at market close and ask the following:
"Does AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" currently exist?"
The poll will stay up for 1 week.
This market resolves YES if the poll resolves "YES".
Otherwise this market will resolve NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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