Will I successfully learn how to create a Manifold bot and get it working by June 2024?
14
65
250
Jun 1
51%
chance

I have a few months in early 2024 when I will not be working my normal day job. I have this (potentially pipe) dream to spend some time learning how to code with the Manifold API.

Resolves YES if by market close I create a bot account that executes at least 10 actions in a given 24-hour period without manual intervention.

In my head I’d ideally like to have it make trades or set limits based on a third-party sports or financial market API, but that might be overly aggressive. Just know that I might set my sights too high and not actually meet the deadline because of it.

I have no technical background and have never coded anything aside from very light importing of JSON into a Google Sheet. I have worked in software as a product manager for many years, so I have some basic understanding of data and APIs, but have never built anything myself.

I strongly encourage comments with pointers, tutorials, etc, as I haven’t as of this writing begun to think of how to get started. Even a video with step-by-step instructions that I could follow verbatim via a lot of copy/pasting, could qualify if I choose that path for positive resolution of this question.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ4 of YES

Worst case, hmu, and I’ll show you how I built @breezybot - maybe the dumbest (and thus probably the simplest) bot on this site

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@mattyb I'm also pretty interested in how breezybot works, mostly out of sheer amusement at quite how badly it's performing

predicts YES

@CellVendetta I’ve got a market on how he’ll perform this season, so I can’t touch him until then, but afterwards I plan to make him slightly smarter. I’m happy to share a) how he works and b) why he’s so dumb in whatever public forum afterwards!

You should be able to build an equivalently shitty bot in ~1hr and run them for free!

by June 2023?

24?

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@mattyb Thanks, corrected 🤦‍♂️