Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?
resolved Dec 29

Resolves YES if a podcast show exists by the end of 2023 that...

  1. is listed as a show on Apple Podcasts or Google Podcasts (ie not just uploaded to YouTube) available for public download

  2. centers around original content about Manifold Markets,

  3. includes at least 5 episodes of 20+ minutes in length each,

  4. includes at least 5 episodes that reference markets created in 5 separate weeks (indicating that the episodes were recorded in 5 separate weeks; doesn't have to be consecutive; week defined as a given Mon-Sun period)

  5. is linked to in a comment on this market by market close

Origination for market.

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predicted YES

has anyone heard a peep from @dglid? wondering if @robm's pod is likely to qualify by creator standards or if @Joshua and @NcyRocks need a cheerleader for getting @ManifoldLive up on one of these platforms ๐Ÿ˜…

@shankypanky Iโ€™m monitoring the chat! Havenโ€™t had a chance to listen. If it meets the criteria in the description I use to define substantive, then it should qualify. It doesnโ€™t have to be a good podcast to be substantive. But I do need to confirm by listening. Maybe over the holiday week.

predicted YES

@dglid nice one - thanks for the update David! ๐Ÿ™Œ

predicted YES

@dglid a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats ๐Ÿ˜œ

predicted YES

@dglid shameless nudge by virtue of "hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!" ๐Ÿ˜…

@shankypanky Thanks! Happy Holidays to you too. I have listened to the first five episodes of the pod and have begun drafting my commentary. I expect to post it in the next few days at latest!

@dglid Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?

predicted YES

@Joshua /sub

predicted YES

@dglid great to hear! I've got a fair bit of my net worth wrapped up here so I'll be honest, I'm far more interested in my degree of risk than feedback at the moment ๐Ÿ˜ฌ

@shankypanky Iโ€™ve listened to all 6 episodes in full and can confirm they meet the criteria* so am resolving this market YES!

Thanks @robm for the effort here - i definitely see the value of the format. I myself have been too busy lately to follow broadly whatโ€™s happening on Manifold so this was a useful way to bring me up to speed. I particularly liked the end of episode 5. ๐Ÿ˜‰

See my new market for a few suggestions about what I think could be done to improve the pod:

* I did not individually confirm that at least one market discussed in each episode was created in a different week but the fact that there were so many markets discussed and over a weekly time period is satisfactory enough for me to feel confident that this criteria was met.

predicted YES

@dglid hallelujah the suspense was killing me! haha

thanks David! and thanks @robm for the effort! ๐Ÿ‘Š

predicted YES

Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the quality is better (and will keep getting better). https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/predicate/episodes/2023-Dec-20-Colorado-Ballot--Apple-LLM--Newbie-Markets-e2dgeve/a-aaoun0m

predicted YES
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Sold my yes as creator is afk and I don't want to be biased for a resolution in his absence.

@Joshua he responded to a message on Discord late last month fwiw

@jskf also looks like he placed a bet 5 days ago

I mentioned on Discord but also saying here: he created a market last week

@jskf Ah, I was just looking at the last comment 5 months ago. Okay he'll probably show up soon.

@shankypanky ah yes that would be the one he placed a bet in lol

predicted YES

no pressure @dglid ๐Ÿ™ƒ

predicted NO
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btw you can just say 'resolves based on the spirit of the market' instead of having a list of fixed criteria. you lose the appearances of neutrality and independence from human judgement but you gain the market actually meaning anything if someone tries to mess with it!

In terms of the spirit of the market, I think me and @NcyRocks are already doing that and just haven't gotten around to putting it on apple/spotify.

predicted YES

@Joshua there's a psychic battle happening here, and Joshua is going to lose it

I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with manifold live now that I'm invested here again.

predicted YES

see my earlier comment stands about markets inspiring/motivating genuine IRL actions ๐Ÿ˜…

predicted YES

I had been wanting to give Conflux a chance to sell his "no" position but I think he's taking a loss here no matter what now haha

predicted YES

haha I was doing that thing where I was unrealistically hopeful that Conflux would end up cross-posting the Manifold Live experience on his pod so held my positions here and somehow that worked in my favour in an unexpected way lol

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