Which Manifold-specific shows will I add to my regular podcast rotation by July 2024?
6
199
340
Jul 1
14%
Manifold: Live!
10%
The Market Manipulation Podcast
9%
Predicate
3%
Crystal Ballin’

Resolves YES for each podcast show that by July 2024 meets the following criteria:

  1. Is available to subscribe to and download from Pocket Casts, my preferred podcast app,

  2. Centers around original content about Manifold,

  3. Is lasting: includes at least 5 episodes of 20+ minutes in length each, recorded in 5 separate weeks (defined as a given Mon-Sun period) in 2024 prior to market close,

  4. Is of high-enough quality that I add it to my regular podcast rotation, defined as me setting future podcast episodes to auto-download because I’m genuinely interested in listening to new episodes (and not just for market resolution). This doesn’t have to happen after only the 5th episode in 2024 but must happen prior to July 2024. Obviously this last criterion is quite subjective but I will endeavor to provide feedback to any podcast creators publicly here via comments on this market to give traders a sense of where my head is at along the way.

I know of four audio projects thus far that center around Manifold content:

Crystal Ballin’ - the most similar to a traditional quality podcast; potentially suitable for positive resolution here if it meets the criteria for episode count.

The Market Manipulation Podcast - also a suitable format but inconsistent audio and needs more maturing in terms of content (more akin to episode 5 than episodes 1-4).

Manifold: Live! - has potential but the format is intentionally more video-based, so would be hard to follow in audio-only form.

The Predicate podcast - can likely meet most criteria but to meet the quality threshold, it must improve in one or more of the following ways: A) providing more context to its analysis of markets (for example by contrasting with traditional news media headlines and events to provide perspective on whether or not a news event was actually a substantial development in the story), B) storytelling better by narrating the arc of the market’s development rather than just point in time updates, C) providing opinionated commentary about the host’s beliefs about the true probability of an event or by providing betting advice, D) having on guests to converse about markets, and/or E) other ways I’m not thinking about that might make the show a more compelling listen.

Star Spangled Gamblers, NonProphets, The Prediction Trade, and Election Profit Makers are all good models (though not necessarily the bar) for what might make a Manifold-centric podcast good enough to be part of my regular rotation. At this point, NonProphets is the only one remaining part of my regular rotation (on auto-download) though they haven’t released an episode in nearly a year. All others have been part of my rotation at some point; at this point I most regularly check SSG for interesting episodes but it’s not set to auto-download.

Add more pods as options and comment with a link for me to check out.

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FYI I don’t think any of these podcasts are still going, or at least none in strictly podcast form. I have certainly not added any prediction market podcasts into my regular rotation at this point, so likely profit to be made by betting NO.

@NcyRocks @Joshua any plans to release Manifold Live in podcast form?

@dglid thanks for the constructive feedback, and the motivation to start the podcast in the first place on the previous market.

I'll be working to make the Predicate podcast worth a subscription for you and others in 2024!

@robm Jan 2nd episode was good quality; still a few too many market probabilities read one right after another at times, but it’s obvious you put a lot of thought and work into it. It also now shows up in my preferred podcast app so “all” you need to do is keep it up for 5 more episodes of 20+ minutes and you should resolve “YES”! Keep up the good work.