What’s the score after move 7? [oracle for Manifold Plays Chess 3]
resolved Mar 20
Resolved as

Resolves PROB to ROUND(score,2) (i.e. closest percent) after move 7 of the Manifold Plays Chess 3rd iteration. If the game ends before that move, this market resolves the same as the main game market: /harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The score after any move is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the winning conditional market for that move.

Free response market to promote candidates for move 7:


Conditional markets for move 7 candidates, which will determine this market's resolution (higher average value 2-6 pm EDT tomorrow March 20):



Last move 6. Bd3, score 0.655204


Will advance or delay the closing date as needed, based on the expected resolution of the related markets. See more details and rules for the overall game structure here:

Other moves score oracles:




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predicted NO

Rg1 wins, score 0.305003

Resolves PROB=31%

predicted NO

Please note the slight resolution difference with @harfe‘s /harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-6 , despite both referring to “the score after move 7” is because he resolves the fractional percent probabilistically, while I round to the closest: ROUND(score,2) as clearly specified in this market’s description.

predicted YES

Ok went with a simplified description which better aligns with the title and avoids the issue of the underlying potentially changing its resolution criteria, as described here: https://manifold.markets/deagol/whats-the-score-after-move-7-oracle#HdIwMxyeWssvauybYaZ0

This might get tricky to resolve in case I introduce leveraging (as described in the main "will white win" market).
But if you change the resolution criteria so that you will resolve PROB to the score, it might be fine.

predicted YES

@harfe Thanks for the heads up. To confirm what you’re saying, an issue might arise if the score doesn’t match the conditional’s PROB resolution due to a new leverage rule, yes? So if this market (or another such future “oracle” market) resolves same as the mirror, which in turn had new resolution rules when created (but after traders already placed bets here), it’d be as if this one’s resolution criteria changed mid way without warning.

I understand you’ll give notice of any such rule change at least 2 moves in advance. Since we’re about to decide on move 3, that means the current rules will stay in place at least until move 5, correct?

That gives us until at least the middle of next week for anyone to raise their concerns or suggestions about changing this (and the move 10 future), to resolve as the score after the respective move instead of mirroring the winning conditional. An extra benefit of sticking to the score is, that would align the criteria with the title wording.

@deagol yes this sounds right

predicted YES

@harfe thanks again, went ahead with the change to resolve to the score. Note that to resolve these, I will depend on you continuing to post those scores as comments on the winning markets when they close.

predicted NO

@deagol great. Yes I will post scores.