What will white (Manifold) play in move 7?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" or other resign moves are not allowed!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ440 | |
| 2 | Ṁ201 |
Moves by average probability:
0.951701 Bxe4
0.002743 Ba6
0.002738 Ng5
0.002732 Rg1
0.002728 Rf1
0.002722 Kf1
0.002717 g4
0.002712 Ke2
0.002083 Bb5
0.001941 Offer draw (removed)
0.000752 Nxe5
0.000752 Bc4
pick a number between 1 and 999999906 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1- 90667778] Bxe4, Ba6
[ 90667779-181154808] Bxe4, Ng5
[181154809-271474116] Bxe4, Rg1
[271474117-361629671] Bxe4, Rf1
[361629672-451614716] Bxe4, Kf1
[451614717-541429701] Bxe4, g4
[541429702-631063468] Bxe4, Ke2
[631063469-699905126] Bxe4, Bb5
[699905127-724771793] Bxe4, Nxe5
[724771794-749638204] Bxe4, Bc4
[749638205-757940993] Bxe4, Ba6, Ng5
[757940994-766227339] Bxe4, Ba6, Rg1
[766227340-774497636] Bxe4, Ba6, Rf1
[774497637-782766330] Bxe4, Ng5, Rg1
[782766331-791019920] Bxe4, Ba6, Kf1
[791019921-799272599] Bxe4, Ng5, Rf1
[799272600-807509531] Bxe4, Ba6, g4
[807509532-815745867] Bxe4, Rg1, Rf1
[815745868-823981875] Bxe4, Ng5, Kf1
[823981876-832201572] Bxe4, Rg1, Kf1
[832201572-999999906] other
Hash of the complete table:
a519c4098c24cb84ebe6c27474162c2b95d455e4742bfabf4505184f894734f7
@harfe any rules on this? I think should be valid, but what are the mechanics if it gets picked? we must see what SF3 replies? how does lichess handle it? if they accept, does it count as a move (for the number of moves market)? if they reject, do we go with the losing conditional (presumably Bxe4) or we do a new free response with “Offer draw” now unavailable?
@deagol I declare it illegal until I declare something else. I cannot press the offer draw button in lichess, and this is a sufficient reason for me to not allow this move.
@harfe but in that case the game’s probably lost 😞 is it worth throwing for this pot? i think i gotta revise some of my bets…
@harfe I have no idea what you are talking about, and this is no trap, I’m just tryina have some fun!