What’s the score after move 10? [oracle for Manifold Plays Chess 3]
resolved Mar 27
Resolved as

Resolves PROB to ROUND(score,2) (i.e. closest percent) after move 10 of the Manifold Plays Chess 3rd iteration. If the game ends before that move, this market resolves the same as the main game market: /harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The score after any move is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the winning conditional market for that move.

Free response market to promote candidates for move 10:


Conditional markets for move 10 candidates, which will determine this market's resolution (higher average value 4-8am EDT tomorrow March 27):



Last move 9.Bxc6+, score 0.643476


Will advance or delay the closing date as needed, based on the expected resolution of the related markets. See more details and rules for the overall game structure here:

Other moves score oracles:

This the last I'll make, but will link here if anyone makes more. Thanks all!

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predicted YES

10.Qxf3 won, score 0.652004

Resolves to PROB=65%

predicted NO

Simplified description better aligns with the title and avoids the issue of the underlying potentially changing its resolution criteria, as described here: https://manifold.markets/deagol/whats-the-score-after-move-7-oracle#HdIwMxyeWssvauybYaZ0