Will white win in Manifold Plays Chess, part 3?

Question

Welcome to Manifold plays chess, part 3.

This time, Manifold will play as white against Stockfish level 3 on lichess. Manifold lost both games so far, see https://manifold.markets/market/will-black-win-in-manifold-plays-ch and https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-white-win-in-alexliesmans-mani for these games.

This market resolves YES if white wins.

This market resolves NO if black wins.

This market resolves to 50% if there is a draw.

The game will unfold here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf8 28. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4 32. a4 g5 33. b4 Ke6 34. axb5 Kd6 35.  Rb7 Ke6 36. a6 Kd5 37. h3 Kc5

Market for current move:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-move-38-what)

Market structure:

Per move, there will be a free response market, followed by conditional markets for 2 or 3 moves. The free response market will resolve to the move that manifold will play. For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

If there are 3 or less legal moves, no free response market will be created, and we directly move to the conditional markets.

The markets for the candidate moves are of the form "What will the score be one move later if we play X?". We measure the average probability in the last four hours of the market. The move with higher probability wins and gets chosen. The conditional market that does not get chosen gets resolved N/A. The conditional market for the move that gets chosen resolves to the score one move later.

The score is the average probability in the last four hours of trading in the conditional market for the winning move. If there is no later move, the score for this purpose is 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white win, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose (this is to encourage a shorter game).

In the first 6 moves, the moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" will be legal moves (and white loses immediately if it plays one of those moves). After that, any resign move will not be legal.

Possible rule changes during the game:

If the probabilities for the conditional moves stagnate, I plan to introduce some kind of leverage, so that predictors can predict in a wider range. An example for what I mean by leverage: if the score stagnates around 0.65, we could map 0.6 to 20%, and 0.7 to 80%, and interpolate for the rest. These changes will be announced at least 2 moves in advance.

Other than that, I reserve the right to change some of the rules during the game, if the game becomes very boring or if I am concerned that funding the remainder of the game will become too expensive. In that case, I do not attempt to change the outcome of the game. For example, if the score is below 0.01 over many moves, I might add a mechanism that allows us to resign.

I will wait for 1-2 days before starting the game, during which the rules might be changed.

Edit (2023-03-05): changed description to clarify rules slightly, no changes were made to the rules.

Edit (2023-03-05): Accidentally deleted the paragraph about Resign moves in the previous edit. Added again.

Edit (2023-03-06): Changed "This market resolves NO if white wins." to "This market resolves NO if black wins."

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jun 1, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.