[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 7. Bxe4, what is the score after move 8?
8
28
190
resolved Mar 20
Resolved
N/A

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1.e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4

The other candidate move is 7. Rg1

The conditional market for the other move is here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 8. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 8 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 8.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predicted YES

Rg1: Average probability: 0.305003
Bxe4: Average probability: 0.267701

Rg1 wins