[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 7. Rg1, what is the score after move 8?
resolved Mar 23
Resolved as

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1.e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4

The other candidate move is 7. Bxe4

The conditional market for the other move is here:

If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 8. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 8 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 8.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:


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predicted NO

Resolves to score after move 8: 0.758468
Since I cannot enter precise percentages, I will round probabilistically by using an RNG at home: resolves to 76%.
(if anyone prefers that I use FairlyRandom, let me know)

predicted NO

Rg1: Average probability: 0.305003
Bxe4: Average probability: 0.267701

Rg1 wins

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Tasty m1000 limit order at 25%, but will anyone bite?