What is your P(doom) right now? (used to resolve end of 2025 question)
17
Jan 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
18% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
36% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
What is your P(doom)?
POLL
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
Will the next president state a P(doom)?
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
12% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
12% chance