What is Manifold's P(doom) (Will resolve to a %)
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Ṁ221resolved Apr 18
Resolved as
26%1D
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I will conduct a poll to gauge Manifold's P(doom) after this market closes. This market will resolve to the average P(doom) of that poll
Related markets:
This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3
Will resolve to the outcome of this poll
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@TheWabiSabi I will put a poll with options 0%, 10%, 20%, etc.
I'll take a weighted avg of the votes, and then resolve this market to that %
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