What is Manifold's P(doom) (Will resolve to a %)
9
126
แน€280
resolved Apr 18
Resolved as
26%

I will conduct a poll to gauge Manifold's P(doom) after this market closes. This market will resolve to the average P(doom) of that poll

Related markets:

This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv

End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3

Will resolve to the outcome of this poll

Get แน€600 play money

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I will create the poll Apr 12.

just make the poll

@Jono3h I don't want the poll to influence the outcome of the market

bought แน€76 NO

Resolving to %, how does this work here?

@TheWabiSabi I will put a poll with options 0%, 10%, 20%, etc.

I'll take a weighted avg of the votes, and then resolve this market to that %