What is Manifold's P(doom) (Will resolve to a %)
Basic
9
แน221resolved Apr 18
Resolved as
26%1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will conduct a poll to gauge Manifold's P(doom) after this market closes. This market will resolve to the average P(doom) of that poll
Related markets:
This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3
Will resolve to the outcome of this poll
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@TheWabiSabi I will put a poll with options 0%, 10%, 20%, etc.
I'll take a weighted avg of the votes, and then resolve this market to that %
Related questions
Related questions
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?
29% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
39% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
63% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
Will janus/@repligate meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
40% chance
Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
47% chance
Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
55% chance