9

126

แน222แน280

resolved Apr 18

Resolved as

26%1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will conduct a poll to gauge Manifold's P(doom) after this market closes. This market will resolve to the average P(doom) of that poll

Related markets:

This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv

End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the

End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e

End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3

Will resolve to the outcome of this poll

Get แน600 play money

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@TheWabiSabi I will put a poll with options 0%, 10%, 20%, etc.

I'll take a weighted avg of the votes, and then resolve this market to that %

## More related questions

## Related questions

Is Manifold's P(Doom) by 2050 currently between 10% and 90%? [Resolves to Poll]

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Is your P(Doom) currently between 25% and 75%? (By 2050)

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Is your P(Doom) currently between 10% and 90%? (By 2050)

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Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

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What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?

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What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

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Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

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Who is Manifold?