This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Russia's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2026) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If Russia's democracy score for 2025 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,523 | |
| 2 | Ṁ373 | |
| 3 | Ṁ152 | |
| 4 | Ṁ95 | |
| 5 | Ṁ88 |
People are also trading
@Egor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index the source provided by the creator in the description. Shows no decrease . A 2.03 last year and a 2.03 this year. Per the creators resolution criteria if it stays the same, it resolves no.
@ShaneBo Change on wikipedia page made by newly created account, with no other changes. I'm not saying his info is definitely false, but without authoritative confirmation its absolutely too early to resolve this question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/~2026-21554-32
@Egor A couple thoughts.
what I shared is the direct link that the creator put. So this is the creators definitive resolution source.
It is sourced from the EIU which released it's report. It's paywalled but anyone can go to their website sign up for the trial and cross reference. I've checked and they match
Given 1 and 2 match up and are explicitly stated as the resolution criteria, I don't see any case why they can't resolve.
@ShaneBo Wikipedia is probably right, but... the Economist article seems to only show the scores to one decimal place. I also managed to download the summary report from EIU and it doesn't have a full list of scores... so I'm not sure where Wikipedia is getting scores to two decimal places this year. (Someone else made the same observation over on the talk page.) But I suppose if the scores are only being released to one decimal place, this still resolves NO.
@Egor I agree about waiting. Out of sheer copium I'm still holding YES on Israel and Iran and am hoping they resolve in my favor when the 2 digit decimal places are available.
I know the summary chart (which has one decimal) vaguely disagrees with me, but subjectively I fail to see how Israel and Iran both didn't become more authoritarian in 2025.
@Egor (sorry I tagged the wrong person) I agree, assuming there is a full report
Btw @cash, most of these markets can resolve now based on the article in The Economist
@a_l_e_x is right.
@cash the following markets can definitively resolve based on the article.
definite YES:
Venezuela, Ukraine, India, Pakistan.
definite NO:
China, France, Argentina, Canada, Mexico, Poland, Japan.
Needs the full report with 2 decimal places:
Russia, Israel, Iran ,Turkey, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia, Germany, UK
@ShaneBo thanks for getting this! How annoying that the exact scores are ultra-paywalled this time (and my uni doesn't have a subscription apparently)
Edit: anyway yes, all of these markets can resolve now if we know Wikipedia is correct
@cash correct. with the exception that there appears to be one error with the sub sahara regional score where wiki lists 3.99 but the actual report shows 4.00.
@cash my interpretation of the error between wiki and report is that if you actually add up the scores in each category the average is 3.998 so perhaps the report rounded up but the wiki just didnt
@ShaneBo lol lets just stick with 2 decimal places everywhere otherwise my rabble rousing self will be tempted to look into 3 decimal places everywhere, and whether or not they round up, and whether or not the overall score is a simple average of the others... I've already spent too much time on this group of markets.
In this particular case it's pretty clear - the report said '4.00' and 'unchanged', so the report 4.00 takes priority over the wiki 3.99 as you said earlier.
@cash for reference this is the sub saharan regional score we're talking about: https://manifold.markets/cash/which-regions-will-become-more-auth#4ex9s859dzf