Will the world become more authoritarian in 2025?
4
100Ṁ40
2026
66%
chance

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the world average democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2026) compared to the last report (which can be found here).

Below are the world averages from the previous decade with net change in brackets:

  • 2024: 5.18 (-0.04)

  • 2023: 5.23 (-0.06)

  • 2022: 5.29 (+0.01)

  • 2021: 5.28 (-0.09)

  • 2020: 5.37 (-0.07)

  • 2019: 5.44 (-0.04)

  • 2018: 5.48 (no change)

  • 2017: 5.48 (-0.04)

  • 2016: 5.52 (no change)

  • 2015: 5.52 (-0.03)

  • 2014: 5.55 (+0.02)

  • 2013: 5.53 (+0.01)

If the world average democracy score for 2025 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules