Will the world become more authoritarian in 2024?
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5
Ṁ502025
73%
chance
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This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the world average democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
Below are the world averages from the previous decade with net change in brackets:
2023: 5.23 (-0.06)
2022: 5.29 (+0.01)
2021: 5.28 (-0.09)
2020: 5.37 (-0.07)
2019: 5.44 (-0.04)
2018: 5.48 (no change)
2017: 5.48 (-0.04)
2016: 5.52 (no change)
2015: 5.52 (-0.03)
2014: 5.55 (+0.02)
2013: 5.53 (+0.01)
Here is a visualization of country scores included in the last report:
If the world average democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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