Will conservatives and hardliners win a supermajority in Iran’s 2024 legislative elections?
15
92
Ṁ493Ṁ270
May 12
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Iran is holding legislative elections in March 2024. In the previous election in 2020, the conservatives won in a landslide, taking 240 out of 290 seats (83%), due in-part to the Guardian Council’s disqualification of reformist politicians.
“supermajority” means two-thirds (66%+1) of the seats in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
Wikipedia’s tally of Principlists in parliament will be used for defining “conservatives and hardliners."
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