Will conservatives and hardliners win a supermajority in Iran’s 2024 legislative elections?
24
1kṀ1425
resolved Jun 3
Resolved
YES

Iran is holding legislative elections in March 2024. In the previous election in 2020, the conservatives won in a landslide, taking 240 out of 290 seats (83%), due in-part to the Guardian Council’s disqualification of reformist politicians.

“supermajority” means two-thirds (66%+1) of the seats in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

Wikipedia’s tally of Principlists in parliament will be used for defining “conservatives and hardliners."

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While Wikipedia's page hasn't updated, Associated Press reports that hardliners have won 233 out of 290 seats, putting them well over the supermajority threshold. Unless anyone objects, I'm prepared to resolve YES in 24 hours based on this information, which is even quoted in the Wikipedia page under results.

I'm reading on Al Jazeera that hardliners and conservatives won 200 seats in March, which would have already meant a supermajority. Wikipedia's page on the 2024 Iranian elections however lists 178 secured seats for conservatives and hardliners (not including runoff results from May 10, which I assume are still being counted) - out of 290, that's only 61% (so ~5% shy of a supermajority).

If anyone with a better understanding of the situation can link to credible sources showing that a supermajority has already been won, I'm happy to resolve. Otherwise will wait until Wikipedia updates definitively.

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