Resolution Criteria Subject Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Outcome Definition Yes if confirmed deceased from any cause. No if alive on January 1, 2026 according to credible sources. Timing Death must occur before January 1, 2026. Confirmation Standards To resolve “Yes,” at least one of the following must be publicly available: Official Iranian announcement. Obituary or death notice in major international media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). Any claim of death must be corroborated by at least two credible news sources (e.g., Reuters, BBC, NYT, etc).

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

Will Iran's Supreme Leader be dead from any cause before January 2026?

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resolved Jan 1

Resolved

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Subject
- Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Outcome Definition
- Yes if confirmed deceased from any cause.
- No if alive on January 1, 2026 according to credible sources.
Timing
- Death must occur before January 1, 2026.
Confirmation Standards
To resolve “Yes,” at least one of the following must be publicly available:
- Official Iranian announcement.
- Obituary or death notice in major international media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP).
- Any claim of death must be corroborated by at least two credible news sources (e.g., Reuters, BBC, NYT, etc).