Resolution Criteria

1. Subject

   • Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

2. Outcome Definition

   • Yes if confirmed deceased—whether by natural causes (illness, age) or violent means (assassination, air strike, covert operation).

   • No if alive on January 1, 2026 according to credible sources.

3. Timing

   • Death must occur before January 1, 2026.

4. Confirmation Standards
   To resolve “Yes,” at least one of the following must be publicly available:

   • Official Iranian announcement.

   • Obituary or death notice in major international media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP).

   • Any claim of death must be corroborated by at least two credible news sources (e.g., Reuters, BBC, NYT, etc).