Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if the current Iranian regime loses control of the central government in Tehran during calendar year 2025. This includes:
A successful revolution or coup that removes the Supreme Leader and/or key government institutions
The current system of government being formally dissolved or replaced
Key regime leaders fleeing the country due to loss of control
The market will resolve NO if:
The current regime maintains control through 2025
Changes occur within the existing system (e.g. leadership succession)
Protests or unrest occur but don't result in regime collapse (including civil war)
Considerations
While Iran has experienced several periods of significant unrest, the last successful regime change was the 1979 Islamic Revolution
The regime maintains strong control over security forces and key economic institutions
Previous predictions of regime collapse have not materialized despite similar pressures
The impact of regional conflicts and international relations could significantly affect regime stability
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It's an opinion article, but from someone with a lot of experience studying air power: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/israels-futile-air-war
@preferNotToSay Pape has a TERRIBLE track record. Max Abrahms destroyed his terrorism research. Pape is a clown.
I don‘t think it will happen. Israel thinks Iran is weak right now, but more than before, the Iranians will stand together against the common enemy.
Israel is clearly gunning for it
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) expanded its ongoing air campaign on June 15 to target Iranian governance institutions, some of which are related to internal security. The expansion of targets to include regime institutions comes after the IDF expanded its air campaign on June 14 to include critical Iranian energy infrastructure. CNN geolocated footage of smoke near the Justice Ministry in western Tehran on June 15. Israeli strikes also targeted the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry in Tehran. The IDF also reportedly struck institutions that are part of the Iranian internal security apparatus, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) headquarters. The LEC has many subordinate units, including the Prevention and Operations Police, which commands law enforcement stations across Iran, and Special Units, a highly trained, anti-riot force that deploys when regular police cannot contain civil disorder. Disruption to institutions like the LEC could degrade the regime's ability to maintain internal security and social control. These internal security functions are particularly important given that recent Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure will likely worsen Iran’s ongoing energy crisis and lead to more widespread and frequent electricity shortages and outages. Frustration over energy shortages could trigger internal unrest.
-ISW
That doesn't mean they succeed of course
My reasoning for NO:
Israel is targeting military and nuclear infrastructure, not the leadership structure.
A regime change is something they want as an aspirational goal, but that would create more chaos in the region
Iran has shown in the 2022 protests that it is capable of supressing inner conflicts even at a large scale.
They've killed many too revolutionary guard officials, while not targeting the military. Weakening the checks that stop the military from doing a coup.
A regime change during a war is normally the end of that war. If it's favourable to Israel could reduce chaos for decades to come.
Here's some - keep in mind I may be manipulating you for my benefit 😉
https://mrandrewfox.substack.com/p/a-regime-on-the-brink
https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/the-fordow-paradox-where-do-iran