This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.

This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:

• Revolution

• Civil war

• Military coup

• Voluntary abdication of power

• Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority

To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.

Does NOT qualify:

• Routine elections, reforms, or leadership transitions within the current system

• Internal power shifts that preserve the core structure of the Islamic Republic

• Partial loss of territory or uprisings unless they result in full regime collapse

Resolution Source:

A “Yes” resolution will require a clear break in continuity of governance confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. If the Islamic Republic remains in power—de jure or de facto—through the end of 2025, the market resolves “No.”