This question is based on this post by Peter Wildeford, in which he outlines five possible outcomes of the Israel-Iran conflict by the end of 2025. Scroll down to see descriptions of the five scenarios, or click through to the post for more details.

Most likely, I will resolve this question to whichever of the five scenarios below comes closest to describing my sense of the conflict at the end of 2025.

If it feels to me like the actual thing that happens is equally similar to two of the scenarios below, then I may resolve two of the scenarios to 50/50 (and similarly if it feels equidistant from three of the scenarios, etc.). However, I will try to avoid this; I estimate a 75-80% chance that I will resolve this question 100% to one of the choices.

This is obviously subjective, so I will try to answer questions in the comments, so that market participants aren't blindsided by my eventual resolution.

Scenario 1: Deal by EOY2025 (25% probability)

Key elements:

• Trump pushes through a deal allowing limited enrichment at Fordow under monitoring

• Iran accepts caps at 20% enrichment with enhanced IAEA inspections, destroying their 60% enriched stockpile

• Israel grudgingly accepts US security guarantees and enhanced defense cooperation

• Europe holds back on snapback in exchange for Iranian concessions

• Sanctions relief from the US is phased in over 2-3 years tied to compliance milestones

Scenario 2: Iran gets nuke by EOY2025 (10% probability)

Key elements:

• European snapback triggers Iranian NPT withdrawal

• Iran sprints to 90% enrichment using new IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow

• First Iranian nuclear device assembled within 60 days

• Israel launches desperate strikes including possible tactical nuclear use

• US forced to choose between accepting nuclear Iran or direct military intervention

• Regional nuclear cascade with Saudi program accelerating

Scenario 3: Large-scale war by EOY2025 (35% probability)

Key elements:

• Israeli strikes expand to infrastructure targets across Iran

• Iran activates Hezbollah's 50,000+ rockets and attempts Hormuz closure

• US drawn in to protect Gulf shipping and US military bases

• European forces deploy to secure energy supplies

• Conflict potentially spreads to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon

• Potential global recession triggered by $150+ oil prices

Scenario 4: Managed Escalation - The New Normal (23% probability)

Key elements:

• No deal reached but no war either

• Israel conducts strikes every 3-4 months to “mow the grass”

• Iran enriches steadily but strategically stays below 90%

• Iran orders calibrated proxy attacks that avoid triggering full war

• US and Europe provide just enough support to prevent collapse

• Economic warfare continues with sanctions and sabotage

Scenario 5: Iran voluntarily gives up its nuclear ambitions by EOY2025 (7% probability)

Key elements:

• Iran voluntarily gives up its nuclear ambitions, likely through regime change within Iran due to Khamenei dying or getting overthrown but possibly due to bowing to overwhelming pressure

• No deal is necessary as Iran is no longer pursuing nuclear weapons, even at threshold status.

• Iran potentially re-enters the international order

• Iran potentially trades complete nuclear dismantlement for massive sanctions relief and security guarantees

• Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that the resolution will be judged primarily on the level of conflict (i.e., "how 'at war' Israel and Iran end up being").

Specific events, such as the destruction of the Fordow facility, are considered orthogonal to this and not the main deciding factor.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to change the resolution criteria from a subjective assessment to a more objective, hierarchical system. The proposed criteria are as follows:

  • Scenario 2 resolves if there is credible evidence during 2025 that Iran has tested a nuclear weapon or achieved full nuclear weaponization.

  • Otherwise, Scenario 3 resolves if:

  • Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz for more than a day, OR

  • The Iran-Israel war has over 5000 direct military fatalities (all countries) since the beginning of June, OR

  • Foreign combat troops enter Iran.

  • Otherwise, Scenario 1 resolves if the US and Iran sign a deal in 2025 that limits the Iranian nuclear program.

  • Otherwise, Scenario 5 resolves if credible evidence suggests Iran has ceased enrichment for 30+ consecutive days in 2025.

  • Otherwise, the market resolves to Scenario 4.