Will an Airbus passenger aircraft be involved in a fatal accident in 2023?
18
139
350
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
YES

Fatality must be ruled a result of mechanical failure or pilot error. (Health issues with passengers unrelated to the airframe do not count, nor do intentional acts.)

I will wait for NTSB or equivalent reports to resolve, so this market may resolve in mid-2024.

Jan 10, 1:05pm: Will there be a fatal Airbus airliner accident in 2023? → Will an Airbus passenger aircraft be involved in a fatal accident in 2023?

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predicted NO

The change of the title on 2024-01-10 completely changed the meaning of the question

@Yves That change happened Jan 10 2023.

predicted NO

@brp Oh, ok nvm

predicted NO

Is a helicopter a passenger aircraft?

@Pykess

Thanks for the links. I had intended to wait on resolution until final reports come out. The interim reports do not yet mention points of failure. That said, given the significant external pressure to resolve...

My read of the A5 BHT is that it looks intentional rather than a pilot error: the flight data recorder being turned off two minutes before the crash is remarkably suspicious and explains the pilot being suspended.

The Hungarian Air Force H145M accident in which the helicopter flew into a zipline appears to be pilot error.

The Australia Sea World collision looks like it might also be pilot error: the pilot of one helicopter was alerted by passengers of the other helicopter, reported hearing the warning, and was unable to avoid the crash.

And of course there are three or four incidents for which reports are not yet posted.

Given the pressure to resolve quickly, I will resolve YES for now and re-resolve if the final reports come out showing no pilot error was involved in any of these incidents. THIS RESOLUTION IS TEMPORARY, and MAY REVERT when final reports are posted.

predicted YES

@brp too late I already spent all my profits

@brp Can you please resolve?

@traders Have proof of YES to resolve this quicker than mid-2024?

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Does my comment below not suffice?

@SirCryptomind You are impatient. "I will wait for NTSB or equivalent reports to resolve."

@brp I was asking if the traders had any proof that would meet your criteria, which would be an NTSB report. If it was not available, that is all that is needed to be said. I am just trying to help.

predicted YES

This should resolve to YES right? Due to the aforementioned ATR and Eurocopter crashes? Additionally I found a few more:

https://www.moit.gov.bt/en/preliminary-report-of-the-a5-bht-helicopter-crash-at-wachey-lunana-gasa-on-3-march-2023/ (Airbus Helicopters H130, 2 fatalities: Preliminary report strongly suggests pilot error and recommends pilot be grounded.)

https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/106990/pdf (Airbus Helicopters H130, 2 fatalities: Report #ERA23FA175 from the NTSB does not directly ascribe pilot error or mechanical failure, but the weather was clear and the report mentions nothing to suggest the cause could be anything other than mechanical failure or pilot error.)

As well as these three with no official reports/sources, only news reports, so I've kept them separate:

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/315548

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/316741

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/346566

sold Ṁ9 of NO

It has just come to my attention that there was an incident on Jan 2nd involving two Eurocopters in a mid-air collision, and an incident on Feb 18th involving one Eurocopter in Ukraine. The Eurocopter is manufactured by Airbus, so if any of these were mechanical failures or pilot error the market will resolve YES.

predicted NO

As mentioned in the other market, I will be counting the ATR 72 crash as 50% of an airbus crash, as Airbus has a 50% ownership stake in ATR. I will sell my NO shares in about one week.

Does this include military passenger aircraft? I would assume so from your title.

predicted NO

@WXTJ Yes, aircraft whose purpose is to carry passengers.