Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?
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2030
63%
chance

The AI must be in full control of the aircraft from the beginning of takeoff to the end of landing with no human intervention in control. The aircraft must be carrying living human passengers.

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

If there is a human pilot in charge of overseeing the AI potentially taking over in case there is an issue, but otherwise the AI is in charge, how would you resolve?

predicts NO

@Odoacre would it make a difference if the pilot themselves are on board or not?

What counts as "AI" here? I feel like in principle you can probably do this already without using any fancy ML. And are there any requirements on the passengers? Like is it enough to have a person on the aircraft, or does it have to be a commercial flight, etc.

@jskf I tend to agree that in theory current technology may be enough to accomplish the task today. To my knowledge the more difficult portion is in the doing of the task.

Obviously autopilot and similar things can perform most functions, but I have been unable to find any evidence that an entire flight including takeoff and landing has been performed with human life at risk.

The question is whether or not it will be attempted. I hope that clarifies the market.

@Dustin If there has been a 100% autopilot flight already, does that resolve yes or n/a?

How many human passengers? At least two?

What type of aircraft? Plane, helicopter, drone, blimp, ...?