How many notable aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025?
32
1.1kṀ6871
Jun 25
3%
5 or less
7%
6
25%
7
29%
8
21%
9
8%
10-12
4%
13-15
1.6%
16-20
0.8%
21-30
0.8%
31+

Resolves according to the number of articles in this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Aviation_accidents_and_incidents_in_the_United_States_in_2025

Count by year:
2021 - 7
2022 - 5
2023 - 8
2024 - 6
2025 - 4 (as of February 17)

2025 is currently on pace for 35 incidents. This is probably just random luck, but there are certain voices on the internet claiming that air safety has been impacted by current events (such as Boeing being terrible), so I'm creating a chance for you folks to put your mana where your mouth is.

This market closes on June 24 but resolves in January 2026. If some articles are nominated for deletion in January 2026, I will wait to see how the processes play out before resolving.

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@SaviorofPlant you might update the title to include the qualifier "notable". There are many accidents every year which don't have Wikipedia articles, including fatal ones.

there are 60 fatal aviation incidents in the NTSB database so far this year

bought Ṁ50 NO

FYI there are now only 3 articles listed

reposted

important market!

bought Ṁ50 NO

Calling all aviation conspiracy theorists, get your bets in here

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