Russia has limited access to parts, software, and technical skills needed to carry out critical maintenance on hundreds of commercial jets. U.S. and European sanctions have cut off the Russian carriers from any contact with plane makers, maintenance partners, and many of the suppliers for the planes’ key parts, from engines to landing gear.
Will there be a major (100 or more fatalities, including passengers, crew, and people on land) airplane crash in Russia in 2025?
1,000The number of Russian plane crash fatalities in the past 10 years hasn't broken 100 except in 2018, and that was over 22 different crashes with a maximum death toll of 71. Despite the sanctions imposed in 2022, 2022 and 2023 has decade-low fatalities at 24 and 20 respectively.
According to the IAC, there were 17 fatal crashes in 2024 and 62 fatalities, with a maximum death toll of 22. There were 11 fatal crashes in 2023 (max 6 deaths) and 14 in 2022 (max 3 deaths).
The argument that I see for the 100+ deaths in 2025 angle is that planes can limp along for long enough without maintenance or part replacement that the effects of the sanction only become noticeable three years out. It's hard to find information about how often a critical component needs replacing, but the average lifespan of an entire plane is apparently ~20 years.
Given the low base rate of massively-fatal crashes, I'd say this situation is... under 20% likely, but I don't feel like dumping a significant portion of my net worth into the claim.
@cherrvak "2022 and 2023 has decade-low fatalities" - this can be explained by significantly lowered volume of flights due to restrictions, I agree with your assessment.