![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FIsaacKing%252F523f6c74cf40.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
Mini
8
Ṁ2322028
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Context: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1746712218274529690
"Minority pilot" refers to anyone who could plausibly be accused of being a DEI hire.
The mistake needs to be in the context of the skill of flying a plane for their job. A car crash doesn't count, even if they were driving to their job at the airport. Running the plane into something while on the ground would count. Crashing a personal plane they were flying for fun does not count. If it's an intentional murder/suicide like flight 9525, that counts too.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will a major aviation accident (resulting in fatalities) occur in Alaska between July 21, 2024 and December 31, 2024?
24% chance
Will there be a fatality of any kind attributed, at least in part, to aircraft controller error before 2025.
32% chance
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?
16% chance
Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
26% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
41% chance
On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?
Will there be a second civil aviation airport collision with fatalities in 2024?
18% chance
By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?
11% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?
60% chance
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
52% chance