🏅 Top traders

Damn, I took my chances and lost my mana! Congratulations to the winners.

@JasonMurphy same GG!

GG everyone, it was perfectly rational to buy NO at high probabilities on the off chance that I was a nutter

Thanks @brod for making an interesting market, and for (unknowingly?) saving me from league demotion last night

@a_l_e_x thanks! and ty for your insane volume planting this market on the home page for a week. I had meant to extend close before last night but when I saw my profit spike randomly from someone in your league betting 'no' 20 seconds before close was pretty clear what they were doing

@brod oh you did know! Thanks. It's so funny how close they came to pulling that off

I believe we are in danger of being swamped by mana.

welp its been real folks, at least I exited early enough to break even.

congrats @a_l_e_x

@Hakari dang how did Penelope get the scoop??

@a_l_e_x Penelope needs a Manifold account

@a_l_e_x probably a ONP insider

I should definitely sign up as a scrutineer for a party at the Vic election so I can insider trade here

@a_l_e_x based

ssssss

@SuryaVino is this the "short" fuse burning?

I don't understand how different sums being bet move the market by such different amounts. Can anyone eli5 the pattern seen in the trades below: spending 250 drops the odds by 3 percentage points, spending 985 drops the odds by 50% (more recent trade is at the top of the list)??

@JasonMurphy I think the 250 trade was into a limit order

@JasonMurphy Yeah, check the order book before you bet if you're curious:

In this case, it was the NO trade which filled a limit order. At such a high %, M250 NO was matched against a limit set by alex and the 'pool' (AMM) for 11,000 shares

This new tech where you can hover and get info is super useful if you ever are wondering "where" the mana went.

The later M2,500 was directly into the pool

@Gen Hot new features like that just require you to beg in JUST the right way at JUST the right time, and keep trying different angles until someone caves 🤣

Nice try @QBreezy

See y'all tomorrow to find out whether I go to both Masters and Tumbles Hell at the same time 🫡

@a_l_e_x

@Hakari more 'no' order if anyone wants it 🤷

@a_l_e_x your exposure to this market is pretty striking! What do you know we don't know?!?

@JasonMurphy well, earlier on when I bought most of my shares, I knew that Narungga and MacKillop were correlated, so calculating the probability of One Nation winning both wasn't as simple as multiplying the probabilities of One Nation winning each one as though they were completely independent events.

Re: today, I know that recounts almost never shift the margin by more than 0.15 percentage points. The votes have been counted multiple times already and the chance of a recount shifting >70 votes in either direction is small (and then halve that chance if you need it to go in a certain direction) but, I admit, not zero!

@a_l_e_x good arguments! I'm certainly disadvantaged by having no idea where mckillop is and having only googled narungga yesterday. (It's that peninsula near Adelaide).

Maybe this market will be the one where I finally quit betting on politics

@JasonMurphy I can't say I know much about their geography either tbh!