Victorian State Election 2026: Number of Seats won by One Nation
2
Ṁ150Ṁ10Nov 28
22%
0
14%
1
14%
2
14%
3
16%
4
19%
5+
The orange tide is sweeping the nation as the LNP brand collapses, but Victoria is the place One Nation finds it hardest to succeed - usually. What will happen this November?
Question refers to Lower House seats only - i.e. seats in the Legislative assembly.
(The legislative assembly is the Victoria equivalent of the house of representatives federally. The question does NOT include the upper house, i.e. the Legislative Council, which is the equivalent of the Senate.)
It will be resolved ASAP after the election, which may mean after recounts and any court cases if they affect the answer!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Who will win the 2028 Australian federal election?
Will One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
20% chance
What will One Nation's support be on the 1st of July 2026?
2026 Victorian state election – 2PP count winner
The Premier of Victoria will be from which Part(ies) after the 2026 state election?
Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
65% chance
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
68% chance
Leader of the National Party of Australia at the next federal election
When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?
Will Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?
59% chance