Resolution Criteria

​The next Australian federal election is scheduled to occur between May and September 2028.

​This market resolves YES if the Liberal-National Coalition formally splits at a Federal level (i.e., the Nationals formally withdraw from the Coalition agreement) at any point before the next federal election.

​Conditions for Resolution:

​- The split must be announced by official party leadership (Liberal or National).

​- The split must be reported by major Australian news outlets (e.g., ABC, SMH, The Australian).

​- Resolution is based on official statements from the Liberal Party leader or National Party leader confirming the end of the formal Coalition arrangement.

​- A "split" involves a formal withdrawal from the coalition agreement, even if temporary.

​Background

​Following the May 2025 federal election, the Nationals announced they would not renew their coalition agreement with the Liberals, ending the political partnership for the first time in 38 years. The split was short-lived; eight days after the announcement, the two parties reunited and formed a joint shadow ministry following policy agreements on nuclear power, a regional future fund, divestiture powers, and regional telecommunications infrastructure.

​On 21 January 2026, Nationals senators Susan McDonald, Bridget McKenzie, and Ross Cadell resigned from the Shadow Ministry after voting against the Coalition’s shadow cabinet position concerning hate speech laws. Their resignations were accepted by Liberal leader Sussan Ley, prompting the remaining eight National frontbenchers to resign in solidarity. On 22 January, Nationals leader David Littleproud confirmed the party had again quit the Coalition.

​As of 8 February 2026, the parties have agreed to reunite after a three-week split, with a deal restored to bring senior Nationals back to the frontbench following a period of backbench "penance."

​Considerations

​Tensions between the coalition parties remain elevated. Mr Littleproud’s recent insistence that a reunion was "untenable" under Ms Ley's leadership was viewed by many Liberals as an unwelcome intervention in internal party affairs. Climate, environment, and energy continue to be the primary policy friction points. Many Nationals members remain vocal sceptics of climate change policy and have historically opposed the net zero programme.

​Creator’s Note & Participation

​Disclaimer: I am participating in this market for interest and to provide liquidity. I have no inside information regarding the internal deliberations of the Liberal or National parties. I do not expect to be able to influence the outcome of this market in any way. My trades should not be taken as a signal of privileged knowledge.