Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if One Nation wins more House of Representatives seats than the combined total of the Liberal Party, National Party, Liberal National Party of Queensland, and Country Liberal Party at the next Australian federal election, currently scheduled for 2028. Resolution will be determined by the official results published by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) at https://www.aec.gov.au/. The final seat count for each party will be used, including any changes from recounts or disputed elections resolved before the new parliament sits.

The seat count for the Liberals + Nationals + LNP + CLP will be combined regardless of whether or not the parties are in coalition. This will include any state-level branch of the Liberal Party or National Party; for example, even if the coalition is re-formed but the WA Nationals are not a part of the coalition (as has often been the case in recent times), any seats won by the WA Nationals WILL count towards the combined Liberals + Nationals + LNP + CLP seat count.

If Liberal and National parties in any state other than Queensland and the Northern Territory merge in a similar style to that of QLD and NT, that merged party WILL count towards the combined seat count to follow the spirit of the market. Similarly, if the Queensland LNP or the CLP split into multiple parties, the seat count of any parties in those states that maintain affiliation with either the Liberals or Nationals WILL count towards the combined seat count.

If One Nation wins the exact same number of seats as the combined Liberals + Nationals + LNP + CLP as defined above, this will resolve NO, because they did not win more.

I will not trade in this market.