Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch what is called unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers inside the car.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision inside the car. The market will resolve NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service requires human supervision/safety drivers in the car
The service is canceled or not launched at all
The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts.
Yes the service must be:
A commercial, paid service
Unsupervised/ no safety driver
It is still YES even if they have the ability to take remote control.
Waymo can take remote control but they are considered by the media as a robotaxi service.
Apollo Go in China, Cruise are considered robotaxi services.
The standard is no human driver in the car and a paid service.
Others can debate their definitions but other questions can be created.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST): - Public access requirement: the service must be bookable by ordinary (non-Tesla employee) customers. If only Tesla employees can book it, the market resolves NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote monitoring does not count as supervision. The determination of 'unsupervised' focuses on the absence of a human driver in the car.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Access for non-Tesla employees can be limited by invitation.
Paid rides must still be provided to these invited non-employees for the service to qualify.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote driving or human remote supervision is not a disqualifying factor for the service to be considered unsupervised.
The standard for unsupervised is the absence of a human driver inside the vehicle.
This corrects a previous AI-generated summary from 2025-05-15 which incorrectly stated that human remote supervision would be a disqualifying factor.
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A safety monitor in the passenger seat is not considered a safety driver. The presence of a safety monitor in the car would not, on its own, cause the market to resolve to NO.
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The Early Access phase is invitation-only.
Parameters of Use:
• You must read through and agree to the attached Terms of Service, Rider Rules, Robotaxi Rider Privacy Notice, and Service Animal Policy.
• You must have a credit/debit card on file.
You may request a ride in the app to/from anywhere in the geofenced area, excluding any airports, between 6:00AM to 12:00AM (midnight), every day of the week. These operational hours are subject to change.A map of the geofenced area is available in the app.
• Note that service may be limited or unavailable in the event of inclement weather.
• Only the invitee may download and use the Robotaxi App to hail a Robotaxi ride.
• Please be courteous and treat the service with respect. Your participation in this Early Access program may be terminated for various reasons, including violating these parameters or engaging in unsafe and/or disrespectful behavior.
• Provide a star rating and feedback from your experience in the app.
• Photos and video of the experience are ok.
@brianwang charging for the rides
https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1935958577128022088?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA
Invites sent to non-employees. Noone on the driver seat but a "safety monitor" on the front right passenger seat. https://x.com/ItsKimJava/status/1935941268741165081
@brianwang how do you feel about no-driver-but-safety-monitoring-on-passenger-seat in terms of resolving this market? :)
@brianwang paying customers. Non employees. No safety driver. Before July 1 2025 in Austin. Resolves positive. Invite only is still ok.
@brianwang Just to check: for the resolution of the question is it important where the person is sitting in the car or whether they are controlling the car? Specifically, if the "safety monitor" can take direct control over the car (say an extra break pedal + gamepad to control steering), despite sitting in a different seat, would you still resolve YES?
@SimoneRomeo I don’t think it’s that clear. The description says:
The market will resolve NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service requires human supervision/safety drivers in the car
The service requires humain supervision in the car. What else is a safety monitor in the car if not human supervision in the car? What a joke. Talk about moving the goalposts.
@brianwang safety monitor is human supervision in the car, something your original criteria ruled out.
A small fleet of Tesla Robotaxis will begin carrying passengers in Austin on June 22, Mr. Musk said on X last week but added that the company may delay the start of the service. But analysts expect the cars will be available only to company employees or invited guests. The service will probably not be available to the general public for several months, analysts said
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/tesla-robotaxi-austin-elon-musk.html
@TimothyJohnson5c16 in fact I’d wager they’re getting paid to ride, will sign NDAs, and will be like Tesla contractors for all intents and purposes.
@MarkosGiannopoulos I thought about it but given how opaque Tesla is about everything I don’t think I could confidently resolve it.