NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)
Can't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop
See also: /JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom
I will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2028, where I'll make an informed guess.
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@Ziddletwix I suppose I should ask clarifying questions before betting, but nonetheless, I'm assuming "serves more fully autonomous rides" means something like "you call a robotaxi that you don't own to take you somewhere"? Like, if people get more aggressive using their own personal Tesla for FSD to get them places, those don't count? (because (a) that would be very difficult to report/tally & (b) otherwise I'd assume Tesla is already serving some rides that count as fully autonomous).
@Ziddletwix I do mean to include drives from people who own Tesla's. Yes, it is difficult to tally!
And yes, that's why I've been betting in the earlier market, because the number of Teslas is enormous.
@JamesGrugett in that case how is:
No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
defined? even if FSD is effective, I’d expect most (non-robotaxi) rides to be delivered with someone in the drivers seat. Do rides only count if they are not in the drivers seat and thus not ready to intervene?
Maybe more clarifying, have there been many FSD rides served by Teslas so far in 2025?
@Ziddletwix That was criteria @dreev wanted in the last market. Basically, as long as they don't spend a significant portion of the ride being ready to intervene, because that means it's not really autonomous. You can still have drivers in the driver seat and have it be autonomous.
@JamesGrugett Got it, but here’s what I mean;
Tesla already reports billions of miles driven under FSD. For simplicity, let’s say in some future earnings call they report “1 million FSD rides”.
Currently, by law, all Tesla FSD rides must be supervised, so 0% of those count for this market. Easy enough.
Assume Tesla improves and FSD is legally allowed to be unsupervised, if you choose to do that. Does that mean that immediately, 100% of those “FSD rides” would count for this market? (Simply because there was a change in the law, even if the Teslas and their drivers were doing the exact same thing as before).
That would be very strange to me—the fact that in theory, a FSD ride is legally allowed to be unsupervised is quite different from it actually being unsupervised. Any quick glance at people actually driving their cars would see a variety of normal use, much of which would be heavily supervised (even if FSD is excellent, and better than human use).
Is the plan to assume that all rides that do not legally need to be supervised are automatically unsupervised? Or will you aim to eyeball estimate the actual unsupervised usage of Teslas in practice? (Whether or not they are in the drivers seat).
(Also, the comments in that 2025 market are almost entirely about the robotaxi launch so I’m not sure if they understand that all regular FSD usage counts, post-legalization, IIUC).
@Ziddletwix Yes, it'll be an estimate based on my definition above of fully autonomous rides — not the legal definition.
That market is much older than the robotaxi discussion, there used to be other discussion.
@AbuElBanat I added this note at the top:
NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
Would that have helped you?