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MANIFOLD
When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads?
2
Ṁ125Ṁ24
2027
July 24, 2027
24%
Before Jan 2027
50%
Before Apr 2027
50%
Before Jul 2027
50%
Before Oct 2027
50%
Before Jan 2028

Resolves based on the date of first documented autonomous driving of a Tesla Semi on publicly accessible roads. The requirements are intended to be quite minimal, but to be specific:

  • The driving/testing program must be approved by relevant authorities (similarly to have other autonomous car deployments/testing were approved)

  • At least 10 semis driving for at least a week

  • Must cover at least 1000 miles of roads with non-negligible traffic levels (at least 1 car per minute on average)

  • Human oversight or a safety driver is OK as long as the testing program clearly attempts full self driving.

Elon on Q2 2026 Earnings call:

We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi probably around the end of this year or early next year. [...] It will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production of the Tesla Semi. (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/earnings/TSLA-Q2-2026-earnings_call-653184.html)

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