10% chance. https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/regulatory-services/licensing/transportation-licensing-and-analysis-branch/autonomous-vehicle-programs/autonomous-vehicle-program-permits-issued This question will resolve to YES if TESLA shows up as having received a DRIVERLESS DEPLOYMENT PERMIT under the CPUC's Autonomous Vehicle program, which is the final regulatory requirement to operate driverless robotaxis. This question will resolve NO at close time if TESLA has not obtained a DRIVERLESS DEPLOYMENT PERMIT according to the CPUC website. At the time of market creation, TESLA has not obtained any AV permits, though they have obtained a permit to operate a TCP service (e.g. Uber, not permitted to use any self-driving tech)