MANIFOLD
On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
20
Ṁ110Ṁ2.7k
Feb 14
99%
2026-02-12 (12-Feb-2026)
98%
2026-04-14 (14-Apr-2026)
97%
2026-06-14 (14-Jun-2026)
96%
2026-08-13 (13-Aug-2026)
94%
2026-10-13 (13-Oct-2026)
87%
2026-12-13 (13-Dec-2026)

Each option will resolve a couple of days after the given date to be on the safe side.

Market context
US Politics
Trump's Second Term
Politics
Trump
Death markets
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@4fa Playing the SSA actuarial tables exactly?

@MarySmith Approximately… 😉

@4fa how big of a limit order are you interested going in on @ 94% for making it through the year?

bought Ṁ3 YES

@MarySmith Not much, to be honest. I think it's closer to 97% than to 94%, but other traders in this market have bet it lower, maybe they'd be interested in a deal with you.

@4fa hard to say - Big Don is taking big actions that have consequences bigly...

reposted

Currently some arbitrage opportunity with the 2025 market: https://manifold.markets/4fa/on-which-days-will-donald-trump-be

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