Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies before January 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death. This market resolves NO if Trump is alive on January 1, 2027.

Background

Trump is currently 79 years old and will turn 80 this year. Trump's 2018 coronary CT calcium scan score indicates he has coronary artery disease. He has been seen with bruising on the back of his right hand and noticeable swelling at his ankles, with the White House diagnosing chronic venous insufficiency. Trump disclosed he is taking a larger dosage of Aspirin and ignoring medical advice.

Considerations

Recent medical evaluations have produced conflicting assessments. Trump's physician stated imaging results were "perfectly normal and revealed absolutely no abnormalities", though some observers have speculated Trump may be taking Leqembi, used to treat Alzheimer's. Trump has a documented family history of age-related dementia; his father died at 93 from pneumonia complicated by Alzheimer's disease and had been diagnosed with dementia by his late 80s.