Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies at any point during the calendar year 2026. Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC, etc.) or official government sources. The market resolves NO if Trump survives through December 31, 2026.

Background

Trump is currently 79 years old and will turn 80 this year. He is the oldest person in American history to be inaugurated as president. Trump's 2018 coronary CT calcium scan score indicates he has coronary artery disease, and the White House said the president was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, a common condition among older adults. In January 2024, Dr. Jay Olshansky gave Donald Trump less than a 75% chance of living through a second term based on publicly available information about his health.

Considerations

Trump takes 325 milligrams of daily aspirin — four times higher than the recommended 81 milligram low-dose aspirin used for cardiovascular disease prevention. Since 2022, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force has recommended anyone over 60 not start taking a daily dose of aspirin to prevent cardiovascular disease, and it's reasonable to stop preventive aspirin in people already taking it around age 75 years.