Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026. Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources. The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.

Background

Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison. A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.

Considerations

Four sitting U.S. presidents have been assassinated in American history: Abraham Lincoln (1865), James A. Garfield (1881), William McKinley (1901), and John F. Kennedy (1963). No sitting president has been killed since Kennedy in 1963, a span of over 60 years. Modern Secret Service protection and security protocols differ substantially from those of earlier eras.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026. Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources. The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.

Background

Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, near Butler, Pennsylvania, when he was shot and wounded in his upper right ear by 20-year-old Thomas Crooks. Two months later on September 15, 2024, Trump survived another assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, by 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh. Routh was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole plus 7 years on February 4, 2026.

In February 2026, a 21-year-old man identified as Austin Tucker Martin was shot and killed by U.S. Secret Service agents after entering the secure perimeter of Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort carrying a shotgun and gasoline can. In 2024, Iran-linked actors attempted to arrange an assassination plot to take out the president, and Trump acknowledged Iran's efforts to assassinate him in 2024 as a factor in ordering a joint U.S.-Israeli operation.

Considerations

Former Secret Service agent William "Bill" Gage stated that "Trump is the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent incidents have been characterized as "super low-tech attacks by people with zero training," using rudimentary weapons. Presidents routinely face roughly 2,000 threats per year, most of which are mitigated before the public becomes aware of them. No sitting U.S. president has been assassinated since John F. Kennedy in 1963, a span of over 60 years.

This description was generated by AI.