Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2025?
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2025?
3
100Ṁ255
2026
10%
chance

This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2025.

The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).

This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2025 in the column "Closing Date".

This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.

This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2026, there are fewer than 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2025 on the "Failed Bank List".

All my questions about number of failed US banks:

2023

2024

2025

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:

I see that the link https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ now redirects to page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list

The content currently displayed on the new page looks very similar to what was shown on the previous page.

I will use data from the new page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list for this market resolution.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules