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Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2025?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ1.4k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2025.

The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).

This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2025 in the column "Closing Date".

This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.

This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2026, there are fewer than 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2025 on the "Failed Bank List".

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Market context
Economics
United States
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@SacredChicken really enjoys your last-second bets on this and other markets 🤣

@bessarabov Haha, I hadn't planned that, I suddenly noticed mana starting to pour in as I reviewed my trades. I like the bank failures questions, thanks for running those again for 2026.

Resolving this market as NO.

According to the page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list , only two banks are listed as having failed in the year 2025.

bought Ṁ30 NO

2 banks failed, as of December 11. I think the current odds are high for 3 to 10

I see that the link https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ now redirects to page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list

The content currently displayed on the new page looks very similar to what was shown on the previous page.

I will use data from the new page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list for this market resolution.

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