Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)?
4
closes 2025
29%
chance

This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.


The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).


This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date".


This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.


This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 7 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".

My markets about number of failed US banks:

2023:

>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20

2024:

>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2

>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545

>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d

>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a

>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2

>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b

>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2023?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
60% chance
Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Sep 2023?
Akzzz123 avatarAK
9% chance
Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2023?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
26% chance
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2023?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
18% chance
Will there be another bank run in the US during 2023?
Will a fifth US bank fail by the end of Oct 2023?
Akzzz123 avatarAK
19% chance
Is the banking crisis contained?
NickAllen avatarNick Allen
29% chance
Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
49% chance
Will another Trump organization declare bankruptcy in 2023?
CodeandSolder avatarCodeandSolder
50% chance
Will WeWork announce bankruptcy by the end of 2023?
Will the European banking system crumble Next?
ThernekVanc avatarTherniok
32% chance
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
32% chance
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2023?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
8% chance
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2023?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
6% chance
Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
81% chance
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2023?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
11% chance
Will there be 20 bank failures?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
10% chance
Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?
SenneVanHeghe avatarSenne Van Heghe
48% chance
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
BB avatarB
31% chance
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)?
bessarabov avatarbessarabov
14% chance