Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2024?
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2024?
21
1kṀ13k
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.


The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).


This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date".


This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.


This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".

My markets about number of failed US banks:

2023:

>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20

2024:

>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202

>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2

>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545

>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d

>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a

>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2

>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b

>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:

    • The market is being resolved as NO based on current data, which shows only 2 records for 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".

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5mo

Resolving this as NO.

From the market description:

This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".

On the page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list there are just 2 records with year 2024:

bought Ṁ1,226 NO5mo

@bessarabov This and all the related markets resolve NO; it was 2 per the resolution source.

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