This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2025.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 1 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2025 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2026, there are no records with a "Closing Date" in 2025 on the "Failed Bank List".
All my questions about number of failed US banks:
2023
Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved YES)
Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved YES)
Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved NO)
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved NO)
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved NO)
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved NO)
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2023? (resolved NO)
2024
Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved YES)
Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved YES)
Will 3 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2024? (resolved NO)
2025
Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2025? (resolved YES)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 5 | Ṁ25 |
I have resolved this market as YES, and I believe this is the correct decision. However, an edge case came up that wasn't explicitly outlined in the market's description.
Page https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ is no longer accessible—it now redirects to page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list. However, the data on the new page is very similar to what was available on the old page. For this reason, I believe it is appropriate to use the data from the new page.
From the market description:
> The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"
> (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
> This market will be resolved as YES if there are 1 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2025 in the column "Closing Date".
Now in the table there are 1 such row, so I'm going to resolve this as YES.
