This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 9 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 9 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ124 | |
| 2 | Ṁ86 | |
| 3 | Ṁ79 | |
| 4 | Ṁ44 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
Resolving this as NO.
From the market description:
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 9 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".
On the page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list there are just 2 records with year 2024:
