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Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2026?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1k
resolved Jul 23
Resolved
YES
63

This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.

The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list).

This market will be resolved as YES if there are 4 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2026 in the column "Closing Date".

This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.

This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2027, there are fewer than 4 records with a "Closing Date" in 2026 on the "Failed Bank List".

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bought Ṁ597 YES

Resolving this market as YES.

On the page https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list now there are 4 banks with closing date with year 2026

bought Ṁ150 YES

Two more US bank failures so far in July. (They're both small and idiosyncratic rather than having a wider implication, it appears to me.)

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