The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of between 4 and 20 letters (the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization doesn't matter).
Each user gets one guess per calendar day. Let's say you're submitting an answer on January 5th, and you wanted to submit "XABDU" as your solution, you would write a comment: "1/5/26: XABDU". Please do not abuse this system; one guess per day!
I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a day, I'm human and will make up the hints the next day) at a random-ish time, starting on Christmas Eve. You will get a number of hints based on the following scale:
90-99%: 0 hints
80-89%: 0 hints
70-79%: 5 hints
60-69%: 10 hints
50-59%: 15 hints
40-49%: 20 hints
30-39%: 25 hints
20-29%: 30 hints
10-19%: 35 hints
0-9%: 40 hints
I think this puzzle will be slightly more challenging than the first round. On the other hand, you now have at least one puzzle to index off of (though this one will be different), and also have access to an MIT Puzzle Hunt alumnus who solved the first puzzle. You are more likely to need to collaborate than on the first puzzle, in my opinion. You have the 25 days of Christmas (is this a thing? idk?) to complete the puzzle, by January 17th, 2026 at 11:59pm.
If you guess correctly, I'll immediately resolve the market to YES. If you guess incorrectly, I'll try to like your comment to indicate it is wrong.
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Hint text goes here:
1,000People are also trading
@JussiVilleHeiskanen When people see that they only have 20 bits of information so far and there are 7 days left, they will buy No.
On the close date the 17th, purely as a cultural note, that in Finland it is known as variously the back of winter or the heart of winter, and breaking it, that is surviving you are supposed to face better times, more light and favorable snow/ice conditions etc.
Before this starts I’ll just make one meta-level observation about the puzzle:
I thought pretty hard about the number of hints it will take to give varying degrees of likelihood at solving the puzzle, and the length of the puzzle and scale of hints/day is pretty well-calibrated imo. I’d also like to emphasize the bold text in the market description, if the bolding wasn't enough.
12/24/25: PORTO
Because we first have to eliminate the boring possibilities.
23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars)
@1bets You do understand why that was an issue in the earlier context, right?
@Quroe It's important to recognize that complaining about the 'dictatorship' within Manifold are the forbidden approach - that's why I'm not complaining. Ben isn't a dictator; he's actually a great example for most of us
@1bets Manifold doesn't have a dictatorship. We have community guidelines. As long as you follow them, there's no issue.
The thing about the community guidelines is everyone needs to follow them.
@1bets I once tried to make a democratic government for Manifold (beneath the monarchic founders of course, may they live for 1000 years) but the people didn’t want it 😢
everyone shall be on a leash (be liked by Eliza)