Manifold is too good at solving puzzles. This one should be more of a challenge. This puzzle is cool, and will add value to your life. To incentivize collaboration and camaraderie, if the puzzle is solved, there is a 5000 Mana prize fund which I will allocate proportionally to the users responsible for solving it or contributing to the social infrastructure required to solve it.
The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of 9 letters (from the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization doesn't matter).
Each user gets one guess per calendar day. Let's say you're submitting an answer on January 30th, and you wanted to submit "XABDUGLFM" as your solution, you would write a comment: "1/30/26: XABDUGLFM". Please do not abuse this system; one guess per day, and try not to edit your answers!
Every day, for 21 days (between Jan 13th and Feb 2nd), you will get a hint. You will get 21 hints total, one per day. These 21 hints have already been written. However, depending on the market % when I check each day, I will do something to the hint.
0-24%: I will add a single word to the end of the hint which is a meta-hint about the puzzle.
25-35%: The hint is given as originally written.
36-49%: I will introduce one error into the hint.
50-59%: I will introduce two errors into the hint.
60-75%: I will introduce three errors into the hint.
76-100%: I will introduce four errors into the hint.
These errors will make the puzzle harder to solve. I'll let you know how many errors were introduced for each hint by adding to the end of the hint something like "(X errors)".
After the 21st day, if you still have not solved the puzzle, you will get three more days to think (Feb 3rd-5th). On each of these days, if the market % when I check is between 0-24%, you will get a single word meta-hint. The market closes at 11:59pm ET on Feb 5th.
If you guess correctly, I'll immediately resolve the market to YES. If you guess incorrectly, I'll try to like your comment to indicate it is wrong, although I probably won't bother to do this until people have at least some grasp on the puzzle, so if you submit "BENBENBEN" on Day 1 and I don't like it, assume it's probably still not correct.
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Hints:
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Day 5:
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Day 9:
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Day 21:
1,000People are also trading
Anyway heres a discussion thread I guess
https://manifold.markets/jatloe/discussion-thread-what-is-the-corre-S6d2s5P5hC
Other related markets:
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/who-will-post-the-winning-guess-in-z2E2d2dhPO?r=SmFjazE Who will post the winning guess?
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/whats-the-lowest-round-3-of-bens-pu?r=SmFjazE
Lowest% Ben’s Puzzle trades at?
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-we-solve-bens-puzzle-round-3-b?r=SmFjazE
Will we solve the puzzle before day 21 hint is revealed?
Well, third time to analyze one of these things.
The "float around 50%" argument still seems to apply at a high level. While odds are low, more hints, more chance to solve. While odds are high, less hints, less chance to solve.
But this one introduces something interesting. Rather than no info, error rates.
I think this mechanism will flat out fail.
I think we can stand to have multiple errors in each hint and still have reasonably good guesses about what the hint was supposed to be. Eg, in the last puzzle, even if three of the 5 binary values in the image was wrong, I think there's a pretty good shot Eliza (or other humans) would have had a good idea what it was spelling through the noise. Hints are not independent of each other, and english has a lot of redundancy, so I think the information value of a corrupted hint is actually pretty close to the information value of an uncorrupted hint.
Which makes me think we won't actually be floating around 50. I think if we float at 50, we have at least an 75% chance to solve. But if we sit between 60 and 75 (three errors) then maybe we have something like a 70% chance to solve. So I think steady state is actually around 70c.
In addition, at a meta level, everyone ( ben, manifold, and myself) seems to underestimate our collective puzzle solving ability, the past 2 times. Puzzles were consistently solved early, before manifold thought, before I thought, with fewer clues than ben thought were needed - even though last time I thought for sure we were gonna solve it, it seems I underestimate how sure I should have been. Eliza solved it with tons of time to spare.
Every sign I can see points to "yes" here.
@DannyqnOht More analogous is if every 3 per group of 5 bits was unreliable. Which I think would be untenable in the last puzzle. Even 2/5 would be pretty hard
MVEMJSUNP (1-12)
NIGHTFALL - 1/12
https://chatgpt.com/share/69657a57-c518-8000-bc0c-bc09d89e7c87
Also the book is GOAT’d. Easy top 10 for me.
@marvingardens it probably is though. Benko was a word no matter how much @Bayesian says otherwise. King Lipitor (w/e) was too.
If someone wants to give me 50-50 that it’s a “word” (broadly defined; as in not a sequence of random letters). I’ll put up 1,000 man in a side market.
@MRME You can see in your chatgpt response that it's not counting e.g. names of sumerian kings. that's all i mean.
Anyway heres a discussion thread I guess
https://manifold.markets/jatloe/discussion-thread-what-is-the-corre-S6d2s5P5hC
Other related markets:
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/who-will-post-the-winning-guess-in-z2E2d2dhPO?r=SmFjazE Who will post the winning guess?
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/whats-the-lowest-round-3-of-bens-pu?r=SmFjazE
Lowest% Ben’s Puzzle trades at?
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-we-solve-bens-puzzle-round-3-b?r=SmFjazE
Will we solve the puzzle before day 21 hint is revealed?
@jatloe https://manifold.markets/Jack1/who-will-post-the-winning-guess-in-z2E2d2dhPO?r=SmFjazE Who will post the winning guess?
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/whats-the-lowest-round-3-of-bens-pu?r=SmFjazE
Lowest% Ben’s Puzzle trades at?
https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-we-solve-bens-puzzle-round-3-b?r=SmFjazE
Will we solve the puzzle before day 21 hint is revealed?
Please add to the pinned comment. Thanks!
@Eliza no more banking unless I skip a day and give the hints late. I also don't think banking hints will be particularly useful tbh.