One of the functions of this market is to foster collaboration and collect information to solve /bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round .
The market resolves to whichever option(s) best describes the correct path to a solution. I will exercise ample discretion in interpreting answers and how the solution is found, if it is. I will do my best to resolve options honestly, in consultation with the community if necessary. Multiple answers can resolve YES (total probabilities adding up to >100%).
I will trade in this market!!!
Add your own answers.
Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'first step' refers to whatever helps unlock a separate rule or algorithm to unlock the solution itself (not the solution directly).
Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For options referencing "first step": if solution paths are truly parallel, then as long as one of the paths involves one of the first steps listed in an answer option, that option counts. The creator expects whoever solves the puzzle to explain their reasoning in a stepwise manner.
Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "Brute force" answer option: A critical mass of guessing is required for it to count as brute force. If "Brute force" resolves YES, then "luck" will also resolve YES (but not vice versa).
Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the "Binary" answer option: The creator considers the use of I and O in the puzzle to be binary in a basic sense (e.g., whether words contain I or O),
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the puzzle is not solved by the close date, some answer options might resolve N/A if it's unknown whether they would have been part of the correct solution path.
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option "Bet on NO. Do nothing --> win": This option resolves the same way as "the puzzle isn't solved", except it will resolve NO if no one who bets NO on the primary market makes any profit.
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option "S is the first letter of the first step": If S is actually the first letter spelled on the grid (assuming it's not the number 5 or a snake symbol), the option will resolve YES. The same applies for other letter options - they resolve based on the order in which they appear on the grid, not the order they appear in the final word (even if the word needs to be reversed).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,881 | |
| 2 | Ṁ529 | |
| 3 | Ṁ330 | |
| 4 | Ṁ247 | |
| 5 | Ṁ199 |
People are also trading
@traders That was fun! I hope I’ve resolved all answers according to the spirit in which they were submitted. Let me know if you think I’ve erred anywhere.
My thoughts on this puzzle are
that it was not that complicated. Once we figured out the bitmap, with enough hints and guesses the answer was relatively easy to find;
that a space like this is tremendously helpful;
that there really is a major trade off between incentives to profit and incentives to solve; @Eliza got it right but it’s easy to get wrong;
however, the optimal price may not be that far below 50% (45-49%?) with enough collaboration and a bit of luck.
@MachiNi For whoever resolves this, FWIW we were doing a little bit of guessing but with an intentional plan and I don't think the number of guesses we made could ever qualify as brute force.
@Eliza Using the list from the Sumerian Kings List of Isin kings, the ones that reigned during a time in 18[235689]X BC (from Wikipedia I guess):URNINURTA (1923-1896) (Guessed by Jack)
BURSUEN/BURSIN (1895-1875)
LIPITENLIL (1873-1869)
ENLILBANI (1860-1837)
ZAMBIYA (1836-1834)
ITERPISHA (1833-1831)
URDUKUGA (1830-1828)
SUENMAGIR/SINMAGIR (1827-1817)
Edit: Apparently there is some disagreement about the exact years for these as I look over multiple Wikipedia pages. Based on where they line up the BC timeline from.
So This could also include:
IDDINDAGAN
ISHMEDAGAN
LIPITESHTARLIPITISHTAR (Guessed by Eliza)
CODEOFLIPITESHTAR (Guessed by Eliza)
CODEOFLIPITISHTAR
@MachiNi We need to talk about this answer. Surely encoding a 5x5 grid of letters in binary form is a cipher? Why is this trading at 35%?
This is a form of e.g. this type of cipher.
@MachiNi You never know, maybe the whole thing is not on the path to solving the puzzle!
@MachiNi
Still to try:
HAMMURABICODE
LIPITESHTAR (as opposed to LIPITISHTAR)
CODEOFLIPITISHTAR
ISHBIERRA (1st King of Isin)
SHUILISHU (2nd King of Isin)
IDDINDAGAN (3rd King of Isin)
ISHMEDAGAN (4th King of Isin)
LIPITISHTAR (5th King of Isin)
URNINURTA (6th King of Isin)
BURSIN (7th King of Isin)
LIPITENLIL (8th King of Isin)
ERRAIMITTI (9th King of Isin)
ENLILBANI (10th King of Isin)
ZAMBIYA (11th King of Isin)
ITERPISHA (12th King of Isin)
URDUKUGA (13th King of Isin)
SINMAGIR / SUENMAGIR (14th King of Isin)
DAMIQILISHU (15th King of Isin)
Anyone else giggling about having Vitamix and Oster both in here? They're two types of blenders. Do we need to anagram something? Vitamix was #98 and Oster was #237.
(This is a joke!)