The puzzle: /bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ612 | |
| 2 | Ṁ388 | |
| 3 | Ṁ331 | |
| 4 | Ṁ214 | |
| 5 | Ṁ211 |
People are also trading
@spiderduckpig It's possible the main market resolves no without ever dropping below 10%, because people think someone will swoop in with the correct answer at the last second
@archvenison But surely someone could make a bot that just bets it down to 0 at the very end, and gets all of those resting orders, since I'm pretty sure only answers submitted before the deadline count
@spiderduckpig Sure, and someone with could make a bot to do the reverse and post the answer. And it seems likely that an answer posted in the minute or so isn't checked until after the deadline. So in the battle of last minute moves, it's the side betting towards 0 that has to be reactive
@archvenison (To be clear, I've been consistently betting yes here. I think it should be like 3-5% below the invers of the main market)
@Eliza Agreed. But if we consider the first round, once you knew the answer it was very clearly correct.
That being said, I would never feel confidant enough to try this kind of shenanigans. But I find myself consistently underestimating the shenanigans that happen on meta-markets
@archvenison Holding Yes would constrain my ability to attempt to answer the puzzle correctly, since I would need to sell all my shares here before each time I submit a guess.